文明之旅

据悉，上周多家美国媒体报道拜登政府准备对中国电动汽车“下狠手”，以所谓的“国家安全”等名义对中国电动汽车企业加征100%的关税，且还要向医疗器械等商品征收新关税。    Growing concerns over rampant inflation and an aggressive use of classic monetary tools by the US central bank have fanned fears of recession across Wall Street and in Washington, reported Politico.,President Joe Biden may have insisted that “there’s nothing inevitable” about a US recession, but repeating that mantra is unlikely to make it a reality, claim analysts. Accordingly, Wall Street is increasingly building the gloomy possibility of recession into its forecasts.,A “brief yet shallow” recession could start in the last three months of the year, according to Dana Peterson, the chief economist at The Conference Board, speaking at a “Women Rule” event cited by Politico.,Michael Feroli, the chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase, believes that a downturn could start as soon as this quarter, as he pointed to consumer beginning to slow.,“Things are looking like we’re losing altitude pretty quickly,” he was cited as saying.,Fed's Anti-Inflation Tactic Unhelpful, Should Focus on Supply Chains, Economist Says2 July, 18:53 GMT,A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. This is made official when confirmed by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The bureau defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”,US Markets Lost up to 30% This Year Amid Soaring Inflation, Fuel Prices, Sanctions Backlash1 July, 16:59 GMT,The US government confirmed last week that the economy shrank in the first three months of the year. The US Commerce Department has revised its reading on first-quarter GDP down from an initial print for a 1.5% drop, showing a 1.6% contraction. The Atlanta Fed’s economic growth tracker pointed to the increased chances of a second-quarter contraction.,Fed Chair: Recession 'a Possibility',Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, Jerome Powell, weighed in on the current economic volatility on June 29. Speaking at a European Central Bank forum held in Portugal, he said that one way to fight inflation was to slow growth while keeping it positive.,"Is there a risk that would go too far? Certainly, there's a risk. I wouldn't agree that it's the biggest risk to the economy. The bigger mistake to make ... would be to fail to restore price stability," Powell said,Earlier, addressing the Senate Banking Committee a week after the Fed ordered the largest interest rate increase since 1994 in response to a four-decade inflation high of 8.6% in May, Powell said:,"We need to get inflation back down to 2%. We're using our tools to do that.”,The Fed Chair acknowledged that the current data pointed to the risk of an economic slowdown.,"It's certainly a possibility. It's not our intended outcome at all but it's certainly a possibility. We're not trying to provoke — and don't think that we will need to provoke — a recession… But we do think it's absolutely essential that we restore price stability, really for the benefit of the labor market as much as anything else.",After the Fed maintained interest rates near zero for the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, now it has implemented aggressive monetary tools historically used to lower inflated consumer prices.,The Fed raised interest rates since March, bringing them to a high of 1.75% - the largest since 1994. The central bank has said it will continue with its hikes till current inflation of more than 8% returns to its target of 2% per annum. However, the policy has failed to make a dent in inflation.,Furthermore, coupled with price spikes, the moves sent the benchmark S&P 500 stock index plummeting to its worst performance in the first half of the year since 1970.,President Joe Biden has publicly backed Powell’s efforts. In a sit-down interview with the Associated Press, Biden reiterated that the US was “in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation,” and also said a US recession is “not inevitable.”,However, troubles driven by the coronavirus pandemic recovery, such as soaring inflation as far back as in November 2021, were exacerbated in 2022. Amid growing oil, gas and fuel prices, the economic woes were further worsened by the self-inflicted aftershock of anti-Russia sanctions, implemented over Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine.,US Consumer Sentiment at New Record Low Amid Runaway Inflation - UMich Poll24 June, 20:23 GMT,Amid this foreboding, Bien’s administration is bracing for recession, despite some Democrats still clinging to optimistic forecasts.,“A recession would be really problematic for the American people. Boy, are we ever a long way from a recession though,” Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) said in an interview.,However, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned that the Fed’s increase in borrowing costs could trigger layoffs.,"You know what's worse than high inflation and low unemployment? It's high inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work. I hope you'll reconsider that, before you drive this economy off a cliff," Warren stated.,A White House official was cited as acknowledging that the economy faces a range of global risks, but touted the country’s economic strengths. The strong labor market, consumer spending and business investment all “position us well – better than almost any other country – to build on our strong economic foundation and transition to steady, stable growth, with lower inflation,” the source was cited by Politico as saying.。美媒称预计新关税施加之后，中国电动汽车对美出口会有巨大的影响，但同时美方也做好了“被反制”的准备，对华出口汽车预计也会遭到对应的限制措施。

B | 总之就是和去年一样，所有的后果都由英特尔等芯片企业买单，美企的亏损由自己承担就行了。

11日，美媒彭博社发表了一篇题目为“美国丧失了竞争的勇气”的文章，批评拜登政府和美国车企在对中国的各项竞争中采取的“缩头”政策。文章称拜登在早前出台了《通货膨胀削减法》，对美国汽车企业进行大额的补贴，他们自信能在世界上取得领先。但数据很快不留情面地给了拜登沉重一击——各大企业经营状况都不好，比如特斯拉准备进行10%的裁员、通用公司的年度报表很难看、福特宣布削减预定的120亿美元电动车支出计划等。在得到政府补助之后，企业看起来仍然很萎靡。

接下来美国就必须要面临全球最大的电动汽车挑战了，中国在电动汽车转型中非常成功，可以说是无缝过渡到新领域。再加上成本、供应链的整合问题，即使是特斯拉一样的企业在中国也竞争力平平。

C | 最后，美国决定不“迎战”中国而是选择将对华电动汽车关税提高三倍至100%，用了一个几乎没有说服力的“安全”理由。现在美国将头埋在沙子里，车企们甚至将能源转型视为一场噩梦，对中国的竞争非常恐惧。

分析则提及，拜登选择“避战”是因为他们只有这一个选项，如果打开国家大门，车企可能因此被冲垮。其一是美方在过去几年试图降低供应链成本，将电车部件转移到墨西哥、拉美和亚洲国家来做，到现在都没有完成；其二是车企早些年已经开始被美国创造的“高关税”温床所包围，美国汽车在这种环境中根本没有竞争对手来挑战，但他们的环境也越来越奇怪，就像是鸟儿进化去掉了翅膀。其三是政府和资本家们根深蒂固的关系，车企害怕和中国正面碰撞而求助于政客们，政客则直接为其提供便利将外来危险关在门外面，形成了一个死循环。

值得一提的还有，之前福特汽车一名匿名消息人士的话报道称，福特第一季度每卖出一辆电动汽车的亏损超过10万美元，美媒高度质疑这一数字“不真实”，旨在恐吓拜登政府。这证明了美国车企的文化现在已经变成“畏惧变革”的保守派，越是打不过的情况下越不敢打。对此有评论称：“别忘了欧洲光伏产业是怎么在温床是‘死去’的，早在2011年中国和欧洲发展还差不多，但中国领先优势进入欧盟后，欧盟立刻用关税关上了大门。时隔6年欧洲无法躲开中国太阳能企业重新打开大门时，欧盟内部的光伏公司简直是活在旧时代的人，生产的产品对全世界没有一丝一毫吸引力了。”